Indian Defence Budget: More – the question is when?

 The eternal debate is about the wasteful expenditure nations make on defence. Expenditure that could have better used for improve the quality of life of the citizens. Countries like India on a developmental path, need to focus first on building core capacities to improve the HDI or Per Capita scores. This is reflected by steady decline in percentage terms on Defence allocation, though absolute numbers have kept increasing, reaping benefits of a growing economy. However, last few years have brought threat of a war closer to home. This needs closer attention by the strategic planners. 

In the overall security matrix, India must maintain overwhelming superiority over Pakistan to ensure credible deterrence. Only then can we begin to approach the level of capability needed to dissuade or match China. It is evident that much remains to be done—and India must commit to a decade-long mission to achieve this strategic objective.

Past few months have confirmed two realities; one we are in a volatile neighbourhood where chances of war are more than what many believed. Second, the recent High Technology buys and the Emergency Procurements were mainstay of the recent conflict, they were a major part of the battle winning arsenal. This shows defence acquisition is on right path but also underscores that much more speed is needed to build capabilities for a long war. Europe is targeting higher defence spends. India’s neighbourhood continues to be volatile. The table below gives the trend in defence expenditure as a % of GDP and in absolute terms. Considering inflation the absolute defence expenditure can be said to be static.


Defence Budget Is Strategic Signalling - Need to Prepare for 2030-35

At the political level, defence funding is an indication of national priorities; that in turn drives pace and scale of defence modernisation. Last FY MoD and services celebrated good booking of capital funds, however, the fact remains that the allocation for defence capital procurements in percentage terms has not kept pace with improvement in economic clout of the country. Which is okay if the strategic outlook prioritises internal security or other developmental expenditure on nation building as a higher priority. 

Indian leadership needs to assess the threats of war and allocate resources accordingly. Allocation should be aligned to national assessment of a war situation in time frame 2030-2040. India needs a potent technology enabled modern combat force at the earliest. To achieve that Indian defence capability needs to see substantial uptick to able to deter adversaries; preparing for a war is the only way to deter war. Indian defence allocation target 4% allocation by 2030 seems justifiable in current two (plus) front war situation.  With history of lapse of capital acquisition funds, a target of 4% by 2030 would test the abilities of the capability development ecosystem. 

Defence Capability Development is Incremental

Capability development is incremental, linear and time intensive process, decisions today will manifest in 5 to 10 years. Higher defence allocation will force upward revisions to the targets for the procurement eco-system, only with increased investments will rapid capability development be visible over the next decade. In other words, with increased allocation the defence procurement ecosystem will then be goaded to keep pace to ensure desired capability development by 2030- 2035, and even 2040.

Make in India : The Strategic Imperative

It is not just about boosting manufacturing—it is about ensuring that India has the ability to fight and sustain a future war, especially if it turns into a long-duration conflict. In the new world order, long wars are clearly a possibility. 

Make in India is essential for national security. However capability cannot wait for make in India. Both have to move in a fine balance

Make in India has to be a driver in the overall capability development of the armed forces. The capability is hungry for technology which will need resources for R&D and to build manufacturing capabilities. 

Increase investment in terms of allocation for defence will drive the effort. 

Conclusion 

In the final analysis, this is not a question of "more or less" spending—it is a question of 'how much is enough to secure the nation in 2035?' Strategic autonomy, deterrence, and readiness all come at a price. India has to decide the strategic direction. 


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Random thoughts shared to clarify minds and seek comments. Nothing official about it


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How to break the L1 Syndrome in Defence Procurement

  Defence procurement suffer from L1 syndrome. Moving to L1T1 has simply not taken off. Sharing an idea to seek comments on process improvement to make it happen. Driving Theme. 1. Induction of niche and superior technologies must be a cornerstone of defence procurement. Opportunities for such induction must be explored at every stage of the procurement lifecycle. 2. However, this must be achieved without compromising due process, fairness, and cost-efficiency. Public funds must be spent with transparency and accountability. Framework. To operationalise this, structured mechanisms such as a Technology Evaluation Team (TET) and an Independent Technical Audit Panel (TAP) could be instituted. These bodies would: 1. Assess technological merit and innovation for suitability for concerned procurement case. 2. Guide capability benchmarking. Recommend justified financial or commercial incentives for superior technologies. Their findings should carry an institutional “seal of approval” tha...
Read more

Review of DAP 2020 : Primer

The Year of Defence Reforms, as announced by the Raksha Mantri on 01 Jan 2025, laid out nine pillars of focused reforms. The fourth pillar highlighted that “ acquisition procedures need to be made simpler and time-sensitive to facilitate swifter and robust capability development. ”   The essence is to speed up capability development of the forces by having an agile acquisition process. Recent global wars and closer home Operation Sindoor and the aftermath have only made the reform more urgent. The character of warfare has undergone a rapid change or near total transformation. Conflicts over the past three years have tested the most advanced systems, forcing legacy platforms—many in service since World War II—to either reinvent themselves or risk irrelevance. The traditional method of enhancing military capability by upgrading standard platforms like tanks, artillery, ICVs, and rockets is being overtaken by the need to rethink platforms, tactics, and structures from the gr...
Read more